Lựa chọn cú ném của OKC sẽ là sự sụp đổ của họ trước Boston
The Thunder's Efficiency Illusion
Everyone's talking about the Celtics and Thunder right now. And for good reason – two of the league's best records. Boston sits at 62-16, OKC at 52-25. But when I look at the numbers, specifically their shot profiles, I see a major disconnect for the Thunder.
Real talk: Oklahoma City lives and dies by the mid-range. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a wizard there, averaging 30.3 points per game on 53.9% shooting. He hit 53.6% of his attempts from 10-16 feet last season, and it's even higher this year. That's elite. But it's also a low-percentage shot for almost everyone else.
Their offensive rating is 118.8, third best in the league. You'd think that means hyper-efficient offense. But dig deeper. They shoot the 15th most mid-range jumpers in the NBA, and they're not converting at a top-tier clip as a team, unlike SGA.
Boston's Three-Point Barrage
Look at Boston. Their offensive rating is 122.9, which is frankly ridiculous. They lead the league in three-point attempts, launching 42.6 per game, making 16.5 of them at a 38.9% clip. That's a huge advantage in expected value.
Jayson Tatum attempts 9.1 threes a game, making 3.6 of them. Jaylen Brown adds another 6.2 attempts, hitting 2.3. They force defenses to extend, opening up driving lanes and kick-outs. It's simple math: three points is more than two points.
Here's the thing: The Thunder's defense is good, fourth in the league in defensive rating at 111.4. They're quick, they funnel. But against a team that weaponizes the three-ball like the Celtics, those mid-range looks for OKC are going to feel like empty calories when Boston is raining down triples.
OKC barely cracks the top 10 in three-point attempts, taking 36.5 per game. And they make them at a solid 39.2% clip, which is actually higher than Boston's percentage. But they just don't shoot enough of them. Chet Holmgren is a legitimate stretch five, hitting 37.9% from deep on 5.1 attempts. But that's not enough volume against the Celtics.
Boston's volume on high-value shots will simply overwhelm the Thunder. Their 42.6 three-point attempts compared to OKC's 36.5 is a difference that compounds over a full game. It's not about individual percentages; it's about shot selection at scale. Prediction: The Celtics will win by double-digits, fueled by at least 20 made three-pointers.