O Retorno de Embiid Não Resolverá os Problemas de Arremesso do Philly Contra Miami

No Jumper, No Chance: The Sixers' Three-Point Problem

Here's the thing about the Sixers-Heat play-in game: everyone’s focused on Joel Embiid’s knee, and yeah, that’s a big deal. The guy dropped 34 points and 10 boards against the Magic last week in his third game back. But for me, this matchup boils down to one simple truth: shooting. And right now, the Sixers just don't have enough of it.

The Heat, on the other hand, are built for these grinder games. They might not light up the scoreboard with volume, but they hit timely shots. Tyler Herro can get hot. Duncan Robinson still has that quick trigger off the bench, even if his 3-point percentage dipped slightly to 39.5% this season from last year's 42.1%. Miami understands the math: three points beats two.

Philly, though? They rank 23rd in the league in three-point attempts per game at just 32.2. That's a huge problem against a Heat team that clamps down defensively. You can't live in the paint all night, even with Embiid. Look, Embiid is an offensive force, a 30-point-per-game scorer, but he's not splashing five threes a game.

Beyond Embiid: Where Does Philly's Scoring Come From?

Tyrese Maxey is their only other consistent perimeter threat. Maxey averaged 25.9 points this season and shot 37.3% from deep. He’s going to get his, no doubt. But after Maxey, the options thin out quickly. Tobias Harris has been wildly inconsistent from range this season, hitting just 35.3% from beyond the arc. And Buddy Hield, who was supposed to be the answer, has shot a disappointing 38.9% from three in his 32 games as a Sixer, a far cry from his Sacramento days.

The Heat will pack the paint, force turnovers, and dare the Sixers to beat them from the outside. They held the Sixers to 31.8% from three in their last meeting, a 109-105 Miami win on April 4th. That's not a fluke; that's the blueprint. If Kyle Lowry or Nicolas Batum are taking crucial threes in the fourth quarter, the Sixers are in deep trouble. Batum is fine for a corner three, sure, but he's not a shot creator.

My hot take? The Sixers' reliance on Embiid to generate almost all their offense, especially without consistent complementary shooting, makes them too predictable for a savvy defense like Miami's. They need more self-created looks from deep, not just kick-outs.

Prediction: The Heat win a close one, 102-97, because they make two more threes than the Sixers in the final five minutes.