OKC's Shot Selection Will Be Their Downfall Against Boston
The Thunder's Efficiency Illusion
Everyone's talking about the Celtics and Thunder right now. And for good reason – two of the league's best records. Boston sits at 62-16, OKC at 52-25. But when I look at the numbers, specifically their shot profiles, I see a major disconnect for the Thunder.
Real talk: Oklahoma City lives and dies by the mid-range. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a wizard there, averaging 30.3 points per game on 53.9% shooting. He hit 53.6% of his attempts from 10-16 feet last season, and it's even higher this year. That's elite. But it's also a low-percentage shot for almost everyone else.
Their offensive rating is 118.8, third best in the league. You'd think that means hyper-efficient offense. But dig deeper. They shoot the 15th most mid-range jumpers in the NBA, and they're not converting at a top-tier clip as a team, unlike SGA.
Boston's Three-Point Barrage
Look at Boston. Their offensive rating is 122.9, which is frankly ridiculous. They lead the league in three-point attempts, launching 42.6 per game, making 16.5 of them at a 38.9% clip. That's a huge advantage in expected value.
Jayson Tatum attempts 9.1 threes a game, making 3.6 of them. Jaylen Brown adds another 6.2 attempts, hitting 2.3. They force defenses to extend, opening up driving lanes and kick-outs. It's simple math: three points is more than two points.
Here's the thing: The Thunder's defense is good, fourth in the league in defensive rating at 111.4. They're quick, they funnel. But against a team that weaponizes the three-ball like the Celtics, those mid-range looks for OKC are going to feel like empty calories when Boston is raining down triples.
OKC barely cracks the top 10 in three-point attempts, taking 36.5 per game. And they make them at a solid 39.2% clip, which is actually higher than Boston's percentage. But they just don't shoot enough of them. Chet Holmgren is a legitimate stretch five, hitting 37.9% from deep on 5.1 attempts. But that's not enough volume against the Celtics.
Boston's volume on high-value shots will simply overwhelm the Thunder. Their 42.6 three-point attempts compared to OKC's 36.5 is a difference that compounds over a full game. It's not about individual percentages; it's about shot selection at scale. Prediction: The Celtics will win by double-digits, fueled by at least 20 made three-pointers.